Cohort Retention Analysis

12 months of simulated member cohorts across acquisition channels. Synthetic data

Avg Week-4 Retention
68.6%
Avg Week-12 Retention
56.0%
Avg Projected LTV
$117
At-Risk Cohorts
0

Retention Curves by Channel

Weeks 1–52 average retention across 2023 cohorts

Referral and Organic cohorts retain at significantly higher rates — members who joined with intent outperform paid acquisition at every time horizon.

Retention Heatmap

Acquisition month vs tenure week (% retained)

CohortW1W2W4W8W12W16W20W24W30W36W42W52
Jan
76.6%
73%
71.2%
63.3%
55.7%
53.6%
46.3%
41.8%
37.5%
31.8%
27.6%
23%
Feb
75.1%
69.9%
68.1%
62.8%
53.9%
51.4%
46.5%
39.8%
37.6%
29.7%
28.2%
23.2%
Mar
74.5%
69.7%
66.8%
63.3%
54.6%
50%
47.5%
39.9%
37.7%
29.3%
28.8%
22.9%
Apr
73.2%
70.5%
66.1%
62.8%
56%
48.8%
47.4%
41.1%
36.8%
30%
28.4%
21.7%
May
71.9%
71.9%
66.6%
61.4%
57.2%
48.8%
46.4%
42.5%
35.4%
31.3%
27.2%
20.3%
Jun
71.4%
73%
67.8%
60.2%
57.5%
49.6%
45%
43.3%
34.3%
32.6%
25.8%
19.6%
Jul
72%
73.2%
69.1%
59.7%
56.8%
51%
44.1%
43.1%
34.2%
32.9%
25.2%
20%
Aug
73.3%
72.3%
69.8%
60.3%
55.4%
52.1%
44.1%
42%
35.1%
32.3%
25.6%
21%
Sep
74.6%
71%
69.4%
61.6%
54.2%
52.2%
45.1%
40.6%
36.5%
30.9%
26.8%
22.4%
Oct
75.1%
69.9%
68.1%
62.9%
53.9%
51.3%
46.5%
39.7%
37.6%
29.7%
28.2%
23.2%
Nov
78.5%
73.6%
70.5%
66.7%
57.7%
52.7%
49.9%
42.2%
39.6%
31%
30.3%
24%
Dec
77.2%
74.4%
69.8%
66.1%
59.1%
51.6%
49.9%
43.4%
38.6%
31.7%
29.8%
22.8%

November and December cohorts show elevated early retention — holiday joiners engage more deeply in their first weeks.

LTV by Channel

Projected 12-month value

Referral$145
Organic$130
Partnership$109
Paid Social$86
LTV = avg monthly ARPU × projected months retained (based on retention curve area under curve). Assumes $15.99/mo ARPU.